Bitcoin — Macro Market Context

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin remains in a broader uptrend that originated from the November 2022 lows. Higher highs and higher lows have defined the primary structure for more than two years, keeping the bullish market regime intact — for now.

However, beneath the surface, structural weaknesses are becoming increasingly visible.

Weakening Impulses

One of the most notable characteristics of the current cycle is that each bullish impulse has produced diminishing returns. While price continues to push higher, every leg up has been less expansive than the previous one, suggesting a loss of momentum rather than acceleration.

This is often an early warning sign in mature trends, especially when accompanied by structural breaks.

Key Structural Levels

The 74,457 level stands out as a critical structural support. This level represents the last clearly protected low within the broader uptrend. A sustained break and close below this level would mark a decisive shift in market structure and would strongly argue against the continuation of the current bullish regime.

In addition, price has already lost the golden pocket (0.618 Fibonacci retracement) of the most recent impulsive leg higher — a level that often acts as a key support during healthy trends. Failure to hold this zone further reinforces the idea that bullish control is weakening.

Trendline and Compression

From a trendline perspective, the picture is also deteriorating. Bitcoin has broken the trendline connecting the two most recent higher lows, which introduces a bearish structural element into the macro view.

Since November 2025, price has been consolidating along the trendline drawn from the first two major cycle lows, rather than expanding away from it. This prolonged compression suggests indecision and increases the probability of a larger directional move ahead.

Macro Conclusion

Bitcoin remains technically in a bullish trend, but it is now operating at the edge of structural failure.

The loss of momentum, the break of key retracement levels, and the growing reliance on a single major support zone all point to elevated risk. A breakdown below 74,457 would not simply be another pullback — it would represent a meaningful transition toward a bearish market structure.

Until that level is decisively lost, the uptrend remains valid.
But structurally, Bitcoin is now far closer to a bear market than most participants are willing to acknowledge.

Bitcoin — 4H Market Context

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has broken the downtrend originating from the October 25 all-time high. However, this breakout failed to generate meaningful follow-through, which immediately reduced its bullish significance.

Consolidation and Liquidity Build-Up

Since late November, price has been consolidating in a relatively tight range. This consolidation has formed a sequence of higher lows, while leaving a substantial amount of untapped liquidity both above and below the range.

This type of price behavior often precedes expansion, as the market compresses and builds liquidity before committing to a directional move.

Key Zone of Interest

The 84,000 – 80,000 zone stands out as a critical area to monitor. This region aligns with prior reactions and liquidity clusters and could act as a fast-reacting zone if price is drawn into it.

A move into this zone could potentially:

• Sweep downside liquidity
• Retest the previously broken downtrend
• Form bullish divergence
• Provide the conditions for a renewed push higher

That said, this remains a zone of interest, not a prediction.

Contextual Conclusion

There is no guarantee that price will revisit this area, nor that it would result in a bullish reaction. However, structurally, this zone represents one of the clearest areas where participation and reaction are likely to occur.

Until expansion resolves this consolidation, Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-fragile state on the 4H, with liquidity dictating the next meaningful move.